01-09-25
Signals & Shifts: Weekly Crypto Market Insights¶
TL;DR¶
This week's cryptocurrency market analysis has identified over 1158 significant signals impacting the market, originating from 32 different channels. Notably, Quality Signals Channel was the most active source.
Market Dynamics:¶
- Activity: The potential volume affected by market manipulation activity is up to USD 75.2 Billions1.
Notable Price Fluctuations:¶
- Pendle (PENDLE):
Maintained a market cap of USD 0.68 Billion2, with a 7.5% return in 24 hours. - DeFiChain (DFI):
Maintained a market cap of USD 0.36 Billion2, with a 49.8% return in 24 hours.
Signal Timeline and Market Impact:¶
- Over this week, we have seen some significant drops in price for the most important tokens BTC and ETH, leading to a decrease in other tokens with low market cap activity.
- Nevertheless, the tokens with the most signals targeting them were:
- XLM (Stellar)
- ADA (Cardano)
- BAT (Basic Attention Token)
Wash Trading:¶
- Uniswap (UNI): Maintained an average of 8.43% of suspected wash trading activity.
- Dogecoin (DOGE): Maintained an average of 2.81% of suspected wash trading activity.
Bullet Summary:¶
- 1158 significant signals were identified this week. The biggest pumps were on PENDLE and DFI with returns of 7.5% and 49.8% in less than 24 hours.
- Market dynamics show strong mentions of tokens such as Stellar, Cardano, and Basic Attention Token among others. It is highly probable that we will see an increase in their volatility.
Complete report¶
Over the past week, the analysis identified over 1158 significant signals impacting the market, gathered from 32 different channels with a volume traded of USD 75.2 Billion2.
The most active of these was "Quality Signals Channel" and ADA was the primary focus of crypto signal activities. The exchanges used for executing these manipulated trading strategies displayed a uniform distribution, indicating no preference.
These signals were exclusively selected from transactions excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), due to their large market capitalizations, which make manipulation less feasible by smaller investors. Additionally, a proprietary scoring system developed by Cloudburst was utilized to filter these signals. This system assesses the success of market manipulations and determines whether they can be attributed to a specific detected signal.
In that context, we can see which exchanges were the most used for executing these signals in the next figure.
It has been observed that the most mentioned tokens during the last week were:
- XLM (Stellar)
- ADA (Cardano)
- BAT (Basic Attention Token)
These are the most impacted commodities. This may induce higher volatility in the market for these tokens over these days.
We can also check the token with the most increase in mentions vs. the previous week. This could give us an idea of the tokens that are being more manipulated.
Consider that more "famous" tokens may have a higher number of mentions in general, so we are seeing here the percentage of increase in mentions, not the most mentioned.
This is not a guarantee for higher volatility in the market, but it could be a good indicator of the tokens that are being more manipulated.
Scoring Distributions¶
The following graph shows the distribution of the scores of the signals detected during the week. The scores are of two types, explained below:
Success Score: This indicator shows how successful a market manipulation attempt was based on market movements that are consistent with the manipulation attempt.
- This score goes from 0 to 1, where 0 is a failed manipulation and 1 is a signal that fulfills all its objectives.
Impact Score: This is an indicator of the volume potentially associated with the manipulation attempt.
- This score goes from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates no volume associated and 1 indicates a high volume associated with the manipulation attempt.
As a reference:
- Success scores under 0.3 are considered failed manipulation attempts.
- Impact scores under 0.2 usually involve very low volume tokens, therefore having low relevancy over the token landscape.
Pump of the Week¶
We have had several market manipulation attempts over the last week, but there are always some that are more relevant than others. In that sense, the most successful pumps of the week were on Pendle and DeFiChain.
PENDLE has a market capitalization of USD 0.68B, while DFI has a market capitalization of USD 0.36B.
The trading activities were likely executed across multiple exchanges, including Binance, Bitget, Bybit, OKX, Huobi, Kucoin, among others. The analysis indicates that investors adhering to these strategies realized a profit margin of 7.5% to 49.8%.
These findings underscore the dynamic and volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, where significant gains are frequently offset by equally possible risks. These groups try to coordinate trades to reduce that risk.
On these graphs, we can see the moment the signal was sent and the moments where the price crossed the barrier of each target of the signal.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Success Score | 0.93 |
| Impact Score | 0.3 |
| Chat | Quality Signals Channel |
| Price Variation | 7.5 % |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Success Score | 0.92 |
| Impact Score | 0.3 |
| Chat | Quality Signals Channel |
| Price Variation | 49.8 % |
Most Targeted Tokens (Ongoing Signals)¶
Over recent days, we have registered a set of tokens that are being actively targeted, and we should pay attention because it's highly probable they are going to have an increase in their volatility.
Wash Trading Activity¶
Wash trading is a form of market manipulation where an investor simultaneously sells and buys the same financial instruments to create misleading, artificial activity in the marketplace. This activity can be used to manipulate the price of a security or to create the illusion of trading activity in a particular stock. We had generated an algorithm to detect this kind of activity over some cryptocurrencies.
We can see over the last week a wash traded volume ratio that is stable with some spikes of activity both for Dogecoin and Uniswap. The average wash traded volume on Uniswap is 8.43% and on Dogecoin is 2.81% over the last 7 days.
Uniswap Wash Trading¶
Dogecoin Wash Trading¶
